There was a time not long ago when turning on Russian state television of an evening would almost always mean viewing a heated discussion about the war in east Ukraine and the horror of Kiev’s attempts to win back territory from pro-Russia separatists.
Over the last two weeks, as that conflict appears to have died down, there has been a recalibration. Now the news bulletins and talkshows are focusing on a different theatre of conflict: Syria.
They lack the emotional urgency of the Ukraine broadcasts, but the same correspondents who filed dispatches from the battlefields of east Ukraine are now in Damascus; the same presenters who wrung their hands over Kiev’s conduct are now talking up the threat of the Islamic State.
“There is less than 1,000 kilometres between Syria and Russia’s borders,” said Vladimir Soloviev, a talkshow host, during a programme on Wednesday evening shortly after Russian airstrikes began. “This is not some faraway conflict. After they’ve finished in Syria, the Islamists will come to us.”
The television assault appears designed to boost support for a campaign that surveys show is not popular. A poll in September by the independent Levada Centre found that apathy was the predominant emotion when it came to Syria: 50% of respondents said they were either not interested in Russia’s Syria policy or had no opinion, while just 14% said they would back military intervention in the conflict.
“Of course, this survey was done two weeks ago, and the Syria issue will now be much more at the forefront of people’s minds,” said Alexei Grazhdankin, of the Levada Centre. “But traditionally Russians have always been against the idea of any kind of military adventure abroad. People remember Afghanistan and don’t want to get involved.”
Perhaps to assuage these fears, news bulletins on state television showed pictures of fighter jets taking off, videos of precision strikes on targets said to belong to Isis, and a command centre of uniformed army officers sitting at computers directing the strikes. The broadcasts emphasised the modern equipment and warfare methods, possibly to reassure viewers that this would not become a quagmire like Afghanistan or Chechnya.
“Even if people are initially against involvement in Syria, if military escalation does start, of course it is always a good way to distract people from other issues, such as the economic situation,” said Grazhdankin.
Any major military operation would be a strain on resources at a time of low oil prices and economic downturn, but the current engagement is limited, and as such will not be a huge burden to the Russian budget. Nor is it likely to prove hugely controversial with the populace, especially with the on-message televisual support. It is also, by itself, unlikely to prove a game-changer on the ground.
“It’s absolutely clear that such a limited number of aircraft is not enough to change the course of the battle. The only successful example of defeating an Islamic insurgency was Algeria and that took 10 years,” said Ruslan Pukhov, a Russian defence analyst.
There is little sign of any dissent in the military over the moves. The Vedomosti newspaper quoted a military source as stating that the total number of Russian servicemen involved in Syrian operations – including pilots and those on the ground coordinating attacks and delivering weapons to the Syrian army – was around 1,500. Russian officials have said no conscript soldiers will be sent to Syria, and the newspaper said there was no shortage of contract soldiers volunteering to go, partly because the mission came with a relatively generous per diem – $62 (£41) per day for officers and $43 for others – in addition to normal salaries.
Due to the opacity of Russian decision-making, experts have offered a plethora of theories for Russia’s action in Syria, from a bargaining chip to get the Americans around the table, to the beginning of a sustained drive to save Bashar al-Assad, to more implausible suggestions such as a nefarious plot to further burden Europe with millions more refugees.
On Thursday the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, reiterated Vladimir Putin’s stated justification for Russia’s involvement: the danger that if Isis is not fought in the Middle East, at some point it will become a problem for Russia, especially given the large number of Russians and Russian-speakers in its ranks.
“The main risk being posed by this entire situation is that the militants whose number amounts to thousands and who are natives of [former] Soviet countries, including Russia, will return and will do their black deeds in our country,” said Lavrov.
Russia has been fighting a low-level Islamist insurgency in the North Caucasus for more than a decade, with frequent attacks on official targets in Dagestan and Ingushetia, as well as occasional bomb blasts in Chechnya. In recent years the terrorist movement has been unable to mount the kind of large-scale attacks in Moscow that were seen in previous years, such as the Nord-Ost theatre siege in 2002 and later suicide bombings on the Moscow metro and at Domodedovo airport.
Analysts say this is down to aggressive tactics to crush the insurgency by Russian forces, as well as the fact that many fighters have left for Syria.
In July a Chechen man who had recently left Chechnya to fight with a pro-Ukraine volunteer brigade in east Ukraine told the Guardian that he believed Russian authorities had a deliberate policy to let radical-minded young men leave the republic for Syria.
“A lot of my friends went. I would always try to talk them out of it, but there is a lot of discussion on social media and on Whatsapp. I’m sure this stuff is monitored, but for some reason they were never arrested,” said the man, who did not want his identity revealed. A reporter for the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta claimed there was a “green corridor” set up to allow potential fighters to leave southern Russia for Syria.
While the television coverage of Syria has on the whole lacked the hysteria of that of Ukraine, some radical commentators have used the Syrian gambit to talk up long-held views of Russia’s “special mission” in the world.
“These are not times for music, or gameshows, these are different times,” said Alexander Prokhanov, a nationalist writer, on a talkshow. “It’s time to start internal, personal mobilisation for a civilisational battle.”